Development of current estimated household data and agent-based simulation of the future population distribution of households in Japan

In response to the declining population and aging infrastructure in Japan, local governments are implementing compact city policies form of location normalization plans. To optimize reorganization urban public infrastructure, it is important provide detailed accurate forecasts distribution populations households. However, several do not have necessary data forecasting capability. Moreover, current gender- age-based only exist at municipal level, household exclusively available by family type prefecture level. Meanwhile, accuracy limited with an assumption same rate change all municipalities within each city. Therefore, aim this study was develop agent-based microsimulation transition model, as unit agent. Household estimated for cities Japan from 2015. Estimated comprised type, house address, age, gender members, obtained national census, building data. The resulting model used forecast attributes every five years. Simulations Toyama Shizuoka Prefectures, 1980 2010 provided highly estimates municipal-level age volume type. proposed further applied predict future disappearing villages vacant houses Japan.